A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
